US-Russia-Saudi talks: Revaluation of gold value amid geopolitical changes

The meaning of the event: the order game in the post-hegemony era

On February 19, 2025, the desert of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, witnessed a dialogue that rewrote the modern geopolitical rules – the United States and Russia held secret consultations on ending the three-year war in the absence of Ukraine. This meeting went far beyond the scope of ceasefire negotiations, and was actually a redistribution of power during the transition period between the old and new international orders:

The eastward shift of the US strategic focus: choosing Saudi Arabia instead of Brussels as the negotiation venue shows that the United States is making the Middle East a “new lever” to balance Europe and Asia, and diluting its investment in traditional European allies through energy security binding.

Russia’s chess path to break the sanctions: The Kremlin accepted the mediation of a third party, which was essentially to exchange oil and gas technology exports for Saudi Arabia’s market access and open up a “gray corridor” for the troubled economy.

The asymmetric rise of power in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia intervened in the great power game as a “peace messenger”, marking the historic leap of the Gulf countries from regional roles to coordinators of global affairs.

This “Ukrainian Peace Conference without Ukraine” is essentially a compromise experiment by the leaders of the old order in the face of declining power. Its far-reaching impact may reshape the geopolitical pattern in the mid-21st century.

Binary fission of gold pricing: short-term rationality and long-term anxiety

Short-term logic: phased retracement of risk discount

If the talks release a signal of a local ceasefire (such as the establishment of the Zaporizhia demilitarized zone), the market may react in three ways:

Safe-haven premium squeeze: According to Bloomberg’s calculations, the gold premium brought by the war is about $175/ounce, accounting for 5.8% of the current gold price. The technical correction may fall to the range of $2880-2900.

Marginal strengthening of the US dollar: Expectations of US-Russia energy cooperation (such as restarting the Nord Stream pipeline through Saudi Arabia) may push the US dollar index back to 103.5, suppressing the gold price by $5-7.

Program trading impact: If $2920 (200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart) is lost, it may trigger the trend reversal strategy of quantitative funds and amplify the volatility.

Long-term narrative: value anchoring in the era of disorder

However, from a broader historical perspective, this meeting just exposed the deep crisis of the Current international system:

The collapse of the spirit of contract: a peace agreement without the participation of sovereign states reproduces the fatal flaw of the 1919 Treaty of Versailles – the logic of power replaces legal justice, laying hidden dangers for subsequent conflicts.

The twilight of monetary credit: When the SWIFT system cracks due to the game between the United States and Russia, the “non-political” attribute of gold is highlighted. In 2024, the global central bank’s gold purchase volume hit a record of 4,974 tons, and emerging markets are reducing their holdings of US bonds to replace gold at an average annual rate of 9%.

Energy-currency decoupling experiment: If the rumored “petroleum riyal settlement mechanism” is implemented, it will shake the hegemony of the petrodollar, and gold may become an implicit guarantee for the multipolar monetary system.

Conclusion: The mission of gold in the collapse of the old order

The essence of this US-Russia-Saudi meeting is the redefinition of the interests of major powers, not the ultimate solution to Ukraine’s sovereignty. The gold market’s pricing will be highly dependent on the “credibility” of the ceasefire agreement and the possibility of subsequent risk spillover.

After a short-term technical correction, gold prices will still benefit from the long-term logic of global system disorder and monetary credit reconstruction.

At 11:42 Beijing time, spot gold was quoted at $2,927.60 per ounce.