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Trump’s major shift in energy policy : Unleashing fossil fuels and reshaping the global energy landscape
- January 21, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
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Trump plans to take a series of actions immediately after his inauguration, using emergency powers to free up U.S. domestic energy production while reversing the Biden administration’s actions to combat climate change, according to people familiar with the matter. The shift is aimed at fulfilling his campaign promise to increase domestic energy production and reorient federal government policy to support oil and gas production, in stark contrast to the Biden administration’s efforts to curb fossil fuels.
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The key to the US dollar in 2025 is here! Where are the opportunities and challenges?
- January 18, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
As President-elect Trump prepares to return to the White House, the dollar has shown unexpected strength. Earlier this week, the dollar’s nominal trade-weighted exchange rate index compiled by the Federal Reserve was just below 130, the highest level since March 1973. The ICE Dollar Index recently broke through 110, reaching its highest level since November 2022. The dollar index has risen 9% since Election Day and 7.7% in the quarter ending December, its best quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2015.
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US CPI report triggers market volatility: Analysis of Fed policy and economic outlook
- January 17, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
The latest US inflation report released on Wednesday showed that the overall CPI in December was basically in line with expectations, while the core CPI eased. The monthly rate of the US CPI after seasonal adjustment in December was 0.4%, the highest since March 2024, higher than market expectations and the previous value of 0.3%; the annual rate of the US CPI without seasonal adjustment in December was 2.9%, in line with expectations, and warmer than the previous value of 2.7%. The monthly rate of the US core CPI without seasonal adjustment in December was 0.2%, in line with market expectations, and cooler than the previous value of 0.3%; the annual rate of the US core CPI without seasonal adjustment in December was 3.2%, the lowest since August 2024, and the market expected it to remain unchanged at 3.3%.
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CPI Report Outlook: Market Volatility and Key Turning Points in Fed Policy
- January 16, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
The recent turmoil in the stock market has options traders increasingly worried that the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report could cause more volatility. Surging bond yields and strong employment data have made this CPI report a hot topic. Stuart Kaiser, head of U.S. equity trading strategy at Citigroup, said he expects the S&P 500 to fluctuate 1% on January 15, which is the largest implied volatility on the CPI data release date since the regional bank turmoil in March 2023.
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EU lowers Russian oil price ceiling and US reduces Saudi crude oil imports – new focus of energy landscape
- January 15, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
Recently, there have been two significant changes in the global energy market: first, six EU countries called for a reduction in the price ceiling for Russian oil from the Group of Seven; second, the amount of crude oil imported by the United States from Saudi Arabia fell to the lowest point in nearly 40 years. These two events not only reflect the dynamic adjustment of the energy market, but also reveal the profound changes in the geopolitical landscape.
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U.S. non-farm payroll data in December exceeded expectations, financial markets are in turmoil again
- January 14, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
In December 2024, the U.S. economy added 256,000 new jobs, which was higher than market expectations of 160,000 and a new high since April 2024 . The previous data for November was lowered to 212,000, and the data for October was also adjusted, resulting in a total reduction of 8,000 positions in October and November. In December, job growth was mainly concentrated in the fields of health care (46,000), government (33,000) and social assistance (23,000).
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December Non Farm Employment Report Outlook – In-depth Analysis of Market Expectations and Potential Impacts
- January 10, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
The United States is about to release a series of key labor market data, among which the December non-farm payrolls report on January 10 is bound to attract much attention . Analysts generally expect that the December non-farm data will no longer be affected by special factors in previous months (such as hurricanes and strikes), and will more accurately reflect the actual situation of the current labor market, and may have an important impact on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. At present, the market predicts that the median number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in December will be 160,000 , a decrease from 227,000 in November, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at around 4.2%. The year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages is also expected to remain at 4%.
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Pressure on Asian currencies and volatility in the U.S. bond market , waves in a strong dollar environment
- January 8, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
Asian currencies have generally fallen to their lowest point in 20 years recently, mainly affected by the strong growth of the US dollar and the vow of US President-elect Trump to raise tariffs. The Bloomberg Asian Currency Index fell to 89.0409 on Monday, the lowest level since 2006. Federal Reserve officials are cautious about the path of interest rates, and investors are worried that Trump’s tariff policy may lead to inflationary pressures. These factors have combined to suppress Asian currencies from the broad rise of the US dollar .
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Global monetary policy, geopolitics and demand dynamics – three driving forces that are favorable to gold
- January 7, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
2024 is undoubtedly a spectacular year for the gold market. Heightened geopolitical tensions, growing demand for gold from Asian consumers, and strong central bank purchases of the precious metal pushed gold prices to 41 new closing records in the first ten months, reaching an all-time high of $2,790 per ounce at the end of October. Although gold’s momentum stalled at the end of last year as Trump won the US election, driving up risk assets and the dollar, State Street believes that gold prices still have room to rise in 2025. The bank expects gold prices to fluctuate between $2,600 and $2,900 per ounce in 2025, with the potential to even rise to $3,100 per ounce.
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Cryptocurrency and gold: emerging forces and ancient trust in the global financial system
- January 6, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
Against the backdrop of uncertainty and declining trust in the current global financial system, we are seeing two very different asset classes experiencing very different fates – cryptocurrencies and gold . Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, has proposed that cryptocurrencies should be considered an independent asset class, rather than a traditional asset like gold. Daly believes that the complexity of cryptocurrencies requires us to deeply understand and define their properties, which may be a currency, a medium of exchange, or a store of value. She emphasized that although cryptocurrencies sometimes exhibit gold-like properties, they are not equivalent to gold.
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