Escalation of the Iraq conflict! The attack and defense battle of the Fordo nuclear facility is about to break out, and the gold market is holding its breath on the “edge of war”

On June 20th local time, Israeli security sources revealed to Iran International Television that the Israeli military plans to launch a “desperate” strike on Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility within the next 48 to 72 hours, even if the United States refuses to participate directly.

1、 Fordo nuclear facility: Israel’s’ intolerable ‘strategic threat

A nuclear fortress 90 meters underground

The Fordo nuclear facility is located deep in the mountains near the city of Qom in Iran, with an underground depth of 90 meters. It is reinforced with layers of reinforced concrete and granite, and conventional bombs cannot penetrate. Since its secret construction in 2002, this facility has become a core hub for Iran’s uranium enrichment activities. The 2024 report from the International Atomic Energy Agency shows that Iran has installed over 5000 advanced centrifuges here, with uranium enrichment levels reaching up to 83.7%, close to weapon grade levels. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly emphasized that “the existence of Fordo is a direct threat to Israel’s survival” and has listed it as a “priority target for destruction”.

Israel’s technological dilemma and the strategic hesitation of the United States

The Israeli Air Force currently lacks weapons that can penetrate the defenses of Fordo, and its Jericho ballistic missiles and GBU-28 ground penetrating missiles can only strike targets 30 meters underground. The only feasible solution is to use the US GBU-57 giant earth penetrating bomb (weighing 13.6 tons and capable of penetrating 65 meters of rock layers), but it needs to be dropped by US B-2 bombers. However, the Trump administration has doubts about the success rate of the operation – the Pentagon has assessed that two consecutive GBU-57s would be needed to effectively destroy the facility and could trigger Iran’s full-scale retaliation. As of June 20th, the White House has not yet approved the request to join the war. Secretary of State Rubio has made it clear that “the United States will not be involved in Israel’s unilateral actions,” but has warned Iran that “any attack against American interests will come at a cost.

2、 Escalation of Conflict: The Critical Point from “Limited Strike” to “Total War”

Iran’s retaliation chain has been activated

On June 19th, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran launched the 15th phase of the “True Pledge-3” operation, launching missile and drone strikes against Haifa and Tel Aviv in Israel, deploying over 100 drones to attack air defense systems. The Commander in Chief of the Revolutionary Guard, Salami, warned that “for every Iranian facility destroyed by Israel, there will be 10 times more retaliation.

If Fordo is attacked, Iran may take three escalation measures: energy blockade: threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz (40% of the world’s crude oil transportation channel), pushing oil prices above $120 per barrel; Proxy War: Delivering 500 Conqueror-110 missiles (with a range of 250 kilometers) to Hezbollah in Lebanon, covering Tel Aviv; Cyberattack: Launching an “Avalon” style hacking attack on Israel’s power grid and financial system, triggering economic panic.

Israel’s Military Adventure and Global Economic Chain Reaction

If Israel acts alone, it may adopt a composite tactic of “ground penetrating bombing+ground assault team infiltration”. Military expert Roche pointed out that military supplies should first weaken the defense of Fordo through multiple rounds of bombing, and then dispatch special forces to enter the facility from the blasting port to place explosives.

This type of action carries extremely high risks: if the assault team is annihilated, it may trigger a domestic political crisis in Israel; If uranium material leaks from the facility, it will cause regional nuclear pollution. More importantly, conflicts could lead to disruptions in global supply chains – Iran accounts for 12% of global oil exports and 40% of its oil revenue is used to support regional proxy armed forces. Energy supply disruptions could trigger a decline in European manufacturing and a rebound in US inflation.

3、 Gold market: Geopolitics is in a premium state

Despite market concerns over Israel’s strike plan, the gold reaction on June 20th was relatively flat. As of early trading in the Asian market on June 20th, spot gold fluctuated in the range of $3344.59-3370.68 per ounce, with a slight drop of 0.82%. The market was stuck under the dual pressure of “military adventure” and “policy suppression”. This reflects the ‘risk aversion fatigue effect’ – investors are more concerned about the medium – to long-term impact of conflicts on energy inflation and Federal Reserve policies.

Israel’s “go it alone” plan for the Fordo nuclear facility has entered the countdown, and the gold market is standing at a dual critical point of “war edge” and “policy crossroads”. Investors need to closely monitor military developments from the evening of June 20th to 22nd, as well as catalysts such as speeches by Federal Reserve officials and May sales data of existing homes in the United States.