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Financial markets in the vortex of US economic policy: the triple game of debt, currency and corporate profits
- July 15, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
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The current US economy is at a critical juncture where multiple policy variables are intertwined: debt interest payments have exceeded historical peaks, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path is shrouded in mystery, and corporate profits are trying to find a balance between trade frictions and technological innovation. The game of these three dimensions not only affects the trend of core assets such as US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar, but also reflects the deep contradictions between fiscal expansion, political intervention, and market rules in the US economy.
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Behind the strengthening of gold: multiple drivers of fiscal risks, policy games and market reconstruction
- July 10, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
Against the backdrop of global economic and political uncertainty, gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is gaining new attention. From the soaring US fiscal deficit to the repeated fluctuations in trade policy, from the unclear path of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate to the continued increase in holdings by central banks around the world, multiple factors have jointly pushed gold prices to show strong resilience in a complex environment. This strengthening is not the result of a single variable, but a market picture woven together by the accumulation of fiscal risks, the rise in policy uncertainty and the reconfiguration of global capital.
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Federal Reserve meeting minutes release divergent signals of interest rate cuts, gold market seeks direction in policy game
- July 10, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On July 9th local time, the Federal Reserve released minutes from the June 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, showing that some officials support considering a rate cut at the July 29-30 meeting, but most officials believe that more economic data needs to be awaited to assess the impact of tariff policies on inflation. This statement contrasts with the strong expectations of the market for a rate cut in July, leading to a volatile pattern in gold prices in the Asian market early on July 10th – London gold surged to $3326.16 per ounce at one point, then fell back to around $3318.
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Gold prices break through again, multiple factors drive historical highs
- March 17, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On March 13, 2025, the international gold market reached a milestone moment. COMEX gold futures prices surged to $3001.3 per ounce during trading, breaking through the $3000 integer mark for the first time. London spot gold closed at $2988.26 per ounce, both reaching historic highs.
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The CPI data is lower than expected, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut window may open earlier
- March 14, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On the evening of March 12th at 20:30, the US Department of Labor announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February increased by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month on month, both lower than market expectations of 2.9% and 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month on month, which was also lower than the expected 3.2% and 0.3%. This is the first time that US inflation data has fallen after four consecutive months of rebound, and the year-on-year growth rate has hit a new low since April 2021.
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US February CPI data forecast: Beware of unexpected risks, gold market long short game
- March 13, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On March 12th at 20:30 Beijing time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February. The market generally expects that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in February may slightly increase from 3.1% in January to 3.2%, supported by the rebound in energy prices and housing costs. The core CPI will increase by 3.8% year-on-year, with a month on month increase of 0.4%.
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Non-farm payrolls fall short of expectations, US dollar fragility begins to show! Trump’s impact has not yet fully emerged! ?
- March 11, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
The first non-farm report of Trump’s presidency released on Friday showed that US job growth accelerated in February and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1%, but the increased uncertainty of trade policy and the large-scale layoffs of the US federal government may weaken the resilience of the labor market in the coming months. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States in February increased by 151,000, less than the expected 160,000. The total number of new jobs in December and January was 2,000 lower than before the revision. In addition, the US unemployment rate in February was 4.1%, higher than the expected 4%, the highest since November 2024. The annual rate of average hourly wages in the United States in February was 4%, lower than the expected 4.1%, and the previous value was revised down from 4.10% to 3.9%; the monthly rate was 0.3%, in line with expectations, and the previous value was revised down from 0.5% to 0.4%.
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The ADP data for February in the United States was unexpectedly cold, with non farm payroll data becoming a key focus
- March 7, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
The unexpected drop in ADP employment data for February in the United States, far below market expectations, instantly ignited investors’ sensitive nerves. The gold market was the first to react fiercely, and the price trend experienced significant fluctuations. At the same time, the evolution of expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has entered a new stage, and the upcoming non farm payroll data is seen by the market as a key factor determining the next direction of gold.
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The ever-changing gold market , short-term corrections and long-term support factors
- March 3, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
Gold prices fell to their lowest level in two weeks on Thursday as the dollar strengthened and investors waited for key inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. In the early U.S. trading, the short-term decline was nearly $13, falling below $2,870/ounce, and the intraday decline was more than 1.60% . On Friday, it hit a new low and once fell below $2,860/ounce. The U.S. dollar index rose by more than 0.5%, standing above the 107 mark, further away from the recent 11-week low, making gold denominated in U.S. dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rose by more than 1% at one point, weakening the relative attractiveness of gold, an interest-free asset.
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The Federal Reserve maintains a “wait-and-see” attitude towards the impact of tariff policies, and there is still uncertainty in the decision to cut interest rates
- February 27, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
The Federal Reserve maintains a “wait-and-see” stance, with the impact of Trump’s policies becoming a key variable in interest rate cuts. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has explicitly stated that the Fed is currently in a “wait-and-see” state and will not take rash action until the comprehensive impact of the Trump administration’s series of new policies on the economy is clarified. These policies cover multiple dimensions such as trade tariff adjustments, immigration policy changes, tax structure optimization, government spending cuts, and federal employee layoffs. He emphasized that before making a decision to cut interest rates, the Federal Reserve must wait for the policy effects to be fully released until the situation “settles”.
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