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The CPI data is lower than expected, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut window may open earlier
- March 14, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
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On the evening of March 12th at 20:30, the US Department of Labor announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February increased by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month on month, both lower than market expectations of 2.9% and 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI was 3.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month on month, which was also lower than the expected 3.2% and 0.3%. This is the first time that US inflation data has fallen after four consecutive months of rebound, and the year-on-year growth rate has hit a new low since April 2021.
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US February CPI data forecast: Beware of unexpected risks, gold market long short game
- March 13, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On March 12th at 20:30 Beijing time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February. The market generally expects that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in February may slightly increase from 3.1% in January to 3.2%, supported by the rebound in energy prices and housing costs. The core CPI will increase by 3.8% year-on-year, with a month on month increase of 0.4%.
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Trump’s tariff storm sweeps global markets: US stocks evaporate $4 trillion, gold market greatly affected
- March 12, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On March 10, 2025, the US stock market experienced the most severe volatility during Trump’s second term. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 890 points, a decrease of 2.08%; The S&P 500 index plummeted by 2.7%, with a daily market value evaporation of over $4 trillion; The Nasdaq Composite Index plummeted by 4%, marking its largest single day decline in two and a half years. Technology stocks have become the hardest hit areas, with Tesla’s market value evaporating by $130 billion overnight, and the “seven giants” such as Apple and Nvidia collectively falling by more than 4%.
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In depth analysis of February US non farm payroll data: long short game and investment strategy in the gold market
- March 11, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
Last Friday (9:30 pm on March 7th), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its non farm payroll report for February, with 151000 new jobs added, slightly higher than the previous value of 143000 but lower than market expectations of 159000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, and hourly wage growth slowed down to 3.1%. The data shows that the US labor market is showing signs of moderate cooling, resonating with the previous weak ADP employment data, further strengthening market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year.
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Trump’s repeated tariff policies highlight the safe haven nature of the gold market
- March 10, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On March 6th local time, US President Trump signed a tariff amendment, announcing a temporary suspension of 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods that comply with the USMCA, with exemptions until April 2nd. This policy shift came just two days after its announcement on March 3rd that “tariffs will take effect on the 4th,” triggering severe turbulence in global financial markets. Gold, as a traditional safe haven asset, exhibits significant anti inflation and hedging characteristics in the face of policy uncertainty.
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The ADP data for February in the United States was unexpectedly cold, with non farm payroll data becoming a key focus
- March 7, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
The unexpected drop in ADP employment data for February in the United States, far below market expectations, instantly ignited investors’ sensitive nerves. The gold market was the first to react fiercely, and the price trend experienced significant fluctuations. At the same time, the evolution of expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has entered a new stage, and the upcoming non farm payroll data is seen by the market as a key factor determining the next direction of gold.
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The rise and fall of gold prices, and the new views of major institutions on the gold market
- March 6, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
Last week, international gold prices experienced a significant decline, with the main contract price of New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures dropping by 3.55%, ending the previous nine week long uptrend. This is also the largest weekly decline in international gold prices since November last year. The domestic gold market has also been affected, and the retail prices of domestic consumer gold jewelry have been comprehensively lowered.
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Trump’s new tariff policy triggers a safe haven trend, with gold soaring $30 in a single day
- March 5, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
On Tuesday (March 4th), US President Trump announced the implementation of a comprehensive 25% additional tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods imported to the United States, covering key areas such as automotive parts, agricultural products, and energy products, with an annual trade volume of 387 billion US dollars. Affected by this, the Mexican peso exchange rate plummeted 5.7% to a new low since the 1994 currency crisis, the inverted yield curve of US Treasury bonds deepened to -0.37%, and spot gold surged $30 in a single day, touching $2894.9 per ounce.
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Non farm payroll forecast for February – new trends in the labor market and economic outlook
- March 4, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
Verification of labor market resilience: In January, there were 143000 new non farm jobs added (previously revised up to 307000), and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.0%. However, wage growth exceeded expectations (4.1% year-on-year), causing inflation concerns. The market needs to verify whether the February data continues the combination of “strong employment+high wages” or shows signs of economic slowdown.
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The ever-changing gold market , short-term corrections and long-term support factors
- March 3, 2025
- Posted by: Macro Global Markets
- Category: News
Gold prices fell to their lowest level in two weeks on Thursday as the dollar strengthened and investors waited for key inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. In the early U.S. trading, the short-term decline was nearly $13, falling below $2,870/ounce, and the intraday decline was more than 1.60% . On Friday, it hit a new low and once fell below $2,860/ounce. The U.S. dollar index rose by more than 0.5%, standing above the 107 mark, further away from the recent 11-week low, making gold denominated in U.S. dollars more expensive for holders of other currencies. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rose by more than 1% at one point, weakening the relative attractiveness of gold, an interest-free asset.
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